Effect of Deck Penetration
January 26th, 2012How far the dealer goes into the deck(s) before shuffling can have a major effect on your winnings. The reason is that with a shallow penetration, the ‘high’ counts which enable you to bet more occur less often in decks where the shuffle comes early. The table below shows how often counts will occur on a percentage basis at varying degrees of penetration.
| Percent Occurrence at… | ||||
| True Count | 50% | 65% | 75% | 85% penetration |
| +1 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| +2 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| +3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| +4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 4 |
| +5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| +6 | .5 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| +7 | 0 | .5 | 1 | 1.5 |
| +8 | 0 | 0 | .5 | 1 |
| +9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .5 |
| +10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .5 |
Let’s examine what I’m trying to say here. If you play at a game with only 50% penetration, out of every 100 hands, only 29 will have, on average, a true count of 1 or better. Since it requires a true count of 1 to get even with the house, only 14 will be hands on which you have an advantage. Now look at the stats for a game with 85% penetration. Here, about 37.5% of the hands will be at breakeven or better and almost a quarter will be hands on which you have an advantage.
YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME AND MONEY IF YOU PLAY AT A GAME WITH LESS THAN 65% PENETRATION.
Even if a game doesn’t offer the best rules, it can still be beaten if good penetration is available. Remember that you should leave a game when the count drops below a true of minus 1 so that you spend most of your playing time making bets in what I call the ‘profit zone.’
(Source: GameMaster)
